The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of agricultural carbon emissions on China’s agricultural economic development, which is of great significance to the modernization of China’s agricultural sector. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2019 to 2022, this paper selected 10 carbon emission-related indicators and comprehensively adopted a pooled regression model, a fixed effect model, and a random effect model to evaluate the impact. It also passes the Hausman test and Tobit model stability test. The results show that limiting agricultural carbon emissions in China has a significant impact on agricultural economic development; the total power of agricultural machinery (TPAM), rural electricity consumption (REC), amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer applied (AACF), and amount of plastic film used in agriculture (APF) have a significant positive impact on the output of agricultural economy (OAE), while cultivated land (CA) has no significant impact. Chinese agriculture is currently on the left side of the inverted “U” shape of the environmental Kuznets curve. Therefore, there is a need for more research and development of agricultural biotechnology and agricultural policy support to strengthen farmers’ knowledge of how to reduce carbon emissions using the above indicators, which can promote agricultural economic growth and achieve high-quality agricultural development in China.