ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Will Danford’s Lizard Become Extinct
in the Future?
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1
Vocational School of Technical Sciences, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Turkey
2
Department of Wildlife Ecology and Management, Faculty of Forestry, Isparta University of Applied Sciences,
Isparta, Turkey
Submission date: 2018-01-15
Final revision date: 2018-03-29
Acceptance date: 2018-04-11
Online publication date: 2018-12-11
Publication date: 2019-02-18
Corresponding author
Akın Kıraç
SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL UNİVERSİTY, SDU ORMAN FAK. B:33, 32260 Isparta, Turkey
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2019;28(3):1741-1748
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ABSTRACT
Climate change created predominantly by burning fossil fuels leads to increased pressure
on biodiversity. It may cause extinction in lizard species over the forthcoming years. Lizard species
that are unable to adjust rapidly enough to the ecological alterations due to climate change are
particularly under threat. Therefore, vulnerable lizard species should be monitored and adopt climate
change scenarios. This study examines the changes in the habitats of Danford’s lizard (Anatololacerta
danfordi) according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (HADGEM2-ES) climate scenarios. We modelled the
current habitat preferences of A. danfordi using the MaxEnt method based on the bioclimatic features
derived from Worldclim. Our results showed that A.danfordi prefers habitats with the bioclimate features
including 12 mm for precipitation of driest month, 1-2ºC for mean temperature of wettest quarter, -4ºC
for min temperature of coldest month, and 600 mm for annual precipitation. We determined the potential
distributions of the A.danfordi using the model and GIS facilities for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate
scenarios. In conclusion, the potential habitats of this lizard species may be dramatically influenced
from two climate scenarios. We envisage that the suitable habitats may be mostly relocated from the
south toward the north. A.danfordi may not adapt this rapid change and may not migrate to new suitable
locations within this short period. Therefore, governments should make provisions against climate
change without delay.