ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Where are the Alien Species? Predictions
of Global Plant Species Invasions
under Current Environmental Conditions
and the Human Footprint
Yao Wang1, Zhonglin Xu2
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1The Meteorological Bureau of Changji, Changji 831100, China
2College of Resource and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of the Ministry of Education,
Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Submission date: 2015-08-21
Final revision date: 2016-03-07
Acceptance date: 2016-03-07
Publication date: 2016-07-22
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2016;25(4):1729-1738
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ABSTRACT
Species invasion is a significant concern because of its substantial effect on native ecosystems.
A number of species-specific invasion predictions that correspond to environmental conditions are available,
but literature predicting global species invasion that corresponds to environmental conditions and human
activity is scarce. In this study, the potential geographic ranges of 308 alien plant species were predicted
under current environmental conditions and human activities. Environmental conditions were delineated
by bioclimatic (mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean temperature of wettest quarter,
and precipitation of driest quarter) and topographic variables (annual solar radiation and topographic wetness
index). Human activity was delineated by the human footprint, which is a raster data layer created from
nine global data layers that describe human population pressure, land use and infrastructure, and human
access. The potential distribution of the target species was predicted using the different types of models. By
searching the correlated literature, we identified and excluded the native geographic range of the studied
species in the predicted geographic range to obtain the exclusive invasive range. Results demonstrated
that the invasion hotspots included the southern part of North America, Southern and Western Europe, the
south coast of Asia, coastal regions of Australia and New Zealand, the coast of West Africa, the Ivory Coast
of Africa, and the southern part of Brazil. In addition, the land areas of the low- (proper for less than 50
alien species), moderate- (51-100 aliens), and high-risk regions (more than 100 aliens) are 213.23, 18.15,
and 2.50 million km2, respectively. All variables (bioclimatic and topographic variables and human footprint)
were positively correlated with increasing richness of alien species. The highest correlation coefficient was
obtained for the human footprint.