ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Virtual Power Plant Operation Based
on Entropy-Weight-Improved Cloud Risk
Assessment Model
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1
School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Taizhou University, Taizhou, Zhejiang 318000, P.R.China
2
Fangyuan Construction Group Co., Ltd., Taizhou, Zhejiang 318000, P.R.China
3
Institute of Grassland Research of CAAS /Inner Mongolia Academy of Grassland Science, Hohhot 010010, China
4
Ordos Institute of Technology, Ordos 017000, China
5
School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
6
Shunde Innovation School, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Foshan 528399, China
7
State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System With Renewable Energy Sources,
North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206.P.R.China
Submission date: 2023-02-21
Final revision date: 2023-03-11
Acceptance date: 2023-03-14
Online publication date: 2023-05-16
Publication date: 2023-06-23
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2023;32(4):3125-3144
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TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Many virtual power plant demonstration projects are currently in operation in China, but research
on the risk assessment of virtual power plants is insufficiently deep. Virtual power plants are complex
systems operated by multiple participants and can provide a variety of products or services. Based
on the operation practices of virtual power plants, in this study, we considered the characteristics of
different components of virtual power plants and their impact on the operation process. We developed a
risk assessment model for virtual power plants from many aspects involved in their operation processes.
First, we analyzed the operation modes that can be selected during the operation of a virtual power plant,
including the scenario in which electric vehicles participate and considering the comprehensive demand
response. Second, we considered the risk faced by a virtual power plant from five dimensions: external
policy, participation, coupling technology, bidding transaction, and credit management risk; we then
designed an operation risk indicator system for virtual power plants with 29 indicators. Third, based
on the entropy weight order relation method and cloud model for determining the index uncertainty
in the process of risk assessment, we developed a cloud risk assessment model and specific algorithm
flow based on the entropy weight order relation method are proposed. Finally, we compared the optimal
economic operation strategies of a virtual power plant under different operating characteristics. The
results showed that the comprehensive risk in the operation of gas virtual power plants can be effectively
reduced when considering various uncertainties, electric vehicles, and comprehensive demand response risk. The results verify the effectiveness and scientificity of the improved cloud model risk assessment
model proposed in this paper.