Resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) has far-reaching significance in protecting the environment, managing resources, and achieving sustainable development. As a typical arid region, Xinjiang is rich in natural resources and fragile in its ecological environment. In recent years, rapid industrialization, urbanization, and water mismatch have resulted in socio-economic activities that have hurt the environment and sustainable development. This study used three-dimensional tetrahedral (3D Tetra) modeling to assess RECC in Xinjiang and analyzed its drivers in conjunction with geographically weighted regression (GWR) modeling. The research indicates that two county-level administrative districts in Xinjiang are experiencing an overload state, accounting for 1.22% of the total area. Correspondingly, 2.11% of the population inhabits these regions. The comprehensive status of resource and environmental carrying capacity is generally good, and Northern Xinjiang is better than Southern Xinjiang, which aligns with the background conditions. The regression coefficient of the water resources carrying index is 0.63, which is the highest driving force for the RECC of Xinjiang. The prudent development and rational allocation of water resources are crucial to enhancing the RECC of Xinjiang. Spatially, the land resource carrying index is the most heterogeneous.