ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Forces
of Land Development Intensity in China:
Evidence from 287 Prefecture-Level Cities
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1
School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
2
Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information
Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Submission date: 2024-07-31
Final revision date: 2024-10-20
Acceptance date: 2024-12-29
Online publication date: 2025-02-25
Corresponding author
Zheng Yang
School of Geographical, Geomatics and Planning,, Jiangsu Normal University, 221116, Xuzhou, China
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ABSTRACT
Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics and determinants of land development intensity (LDI)
is crucial for understanding urban economic development and guiding urban planning and land
use. Focusing on 287 prefecture-level and above cities (PLAC) in China, this study employs spatial
analysis, Ordinary Least Squares, and Geographically Weighted Regression models to investigate the
spatiotemporal dynamics of LDI and its driving forces. The study draws the following conclusions:
(1) The spatial differences in LDI across China are significant, showing a gradual increase from west
to east. High LDI values are primarily concentrated in the North China Plain and major coastal urban
agglomerations, with provincial capital cities also exhibiting high LDI, forming a "core-periphery"
spatial structure. From 2010 to 2020, China's LDI has been on an upward trend. The North China Plain,
the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta regions have experienced the most rapid growth in
LDI, with large cities, mainly provincial capitals, also growing at a faster rate. Additionally, China's
urban LDI demonstrates significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (2) In 2010, China's LDI was
influenced by economic development, urban features, natural conditions, land investment intensity,
and financial investment intensity. By 2020, the driving factors had evolved to include urbanization,
economic development, urban features, natural conditions, and financial investment intensity. The
degree of influence of each explanatory variable on LDI varies across China. This study provides
valuable insights for policymakers in China and similar countries, helping them formulate more detailed
and specific land development policies.