ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Simulating the Total Ecological Footprint
of Suzhou from 1990 to 2009 by BPANN
Hong Yao
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School of Geography, Nantong University, Nantong, 226019, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2012;21(6):1901-1910
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ABSTRACT
Suzhou, one of the most developed cities in Yangtze Delta, lies by Taihu lake in Jiangsu province, China.
Because the city’s economic development has been rocketing upward in the past 20 years, it is necessary to
assess the influence on natural resources exerted by socio-economic growth. Ecological footprint (EF) is one
of the sustainable development assessment indicators. How to simulate the EF’s development trend of the past
in a given region for a long time is a question to be solved. This paper calculates the total ecological footprint
of Suzhou from 1990 to 2009, and attempts to simulate the total ecological footprint (TEF) of the city using
the back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) model, a widely used modeling approach fitting nonlinear
time series in artificial neural networks. Seven socioeconomic factors: gross domestic product, tertiary
industrial products, secondary industrial products, urban population, rural population, annual income of rural
residents per capita, and annual income of city dwellers per capita acted as drivers of the TEF in the quantitative
analysis. The fitting performance of the model was accurate and TEF of the city from 1990 to 2009 could
be simulated by a model. With the proposed approach in this study, the ecological sustainability of Suzhou
could be analyzed.