ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based
on a Combination of VMD and ELM
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Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China
Submission date: 2017-08-31
Final revision date: 2017-10-02
Acceptance date: 2017-10-03
Online publication date: 2018-04-13
Publication date: 2018-05-30
Corresponding author
Wei Li
North China Electric Power University, No. 689, Huadian Rd., Lianchi District, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China, 071003 Baoding, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2018;27(5):2143-2154
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ABSTRACT
Accurate short-term power load forecasting is becoming more and more important for the stable
operation and improved economic benefits of electric power systems. However, when affected by various
factors the power load shows non-linear and non-stationary characteristics. In order to forecast power load
precisely, we propose an extreme learning machine (ELM) combined with variational mode decomposition
(VMD), as a new hybrid time series forecasting model. In the first stage, since decomposed modes and
hidden layer nodes have great influence on prediction accuracy, a three-dimensional relationship has been
established to determine them in advance. In the second stage, using VMD, the time series of power load is
decomposed into predetermined modes that are then used to construct training parts and forecast outputs.
Then every individual mode is taken as an input data to the ELM. Eventually, in the third stage, the final
forecasted power load data is obtained by aggregating the forecasting results of all the modes. To testify
the forecasting performance of the proposed model, a five-minute power load data in Hebei of China is
used for simulation, and comprehensive evaluation criteria is proposed for quantitative error evaluation.
Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model performs better than some previous methods.