ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Runoff Changes Based on Dual Factors
in the Upstream Area of Yongding
River Basin
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State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of River Basin Water Cycle, China Institute
of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, P.R. China
Submission date: 2017-12-04
Final revision date: 2017-12-11
Acceptance date: 2018-01-02
Online publication date: 2018-08-01
Publication date: 2018-11-20
Corresponding author
Lei Hou
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, A-1 Fuxing Road Haidian District, Beijing 100038, P.R. China,, 100038 Beijing, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2019;28(1):143-152
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ABSTRACT
Over the last 5 decades, runoff from the upstream area of the Yongding River basin has greatly
decreased because of changes in the climate and in the intensity of human activities. The Mann-Kendall
rank correlation trend test, cumulative anomaly method, and double mass curve of precipitation and runoff
were applied to analyse the hydrological sequence trends and altered features in the upstream area of the
Yongding River during 1960-2010. The influences of climate change and human activities on changes in
runoff were quantitatively assessed using a climate elasticity method based on the Budyko hypothesis. In
this paper, the results showed that, on average, runoff in the 3 basins in the upstream area of the Yongding
showed a significant (99% confidence level) downward trend. We found that human activities were the
main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in the Yanghe River basin, Sanggan River basin,
and upstream area of the Yongding River basin, accounting for 82.04%, 81.51%, and 75.69% of the runoff
reduction, respectively, during evaluation period I, and accounting for 77.94%, 72.73%, and 73.37% of
runoff reduction, respectively, during evaluation period II. However, the impact of climate variability on
runoff gradually increased over time in the 3 basins.