Using China’s “dual-carbon” targets as a reference, this paper focuses on Zhejiang’s manufacturing sector as the research object and constructs a STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology)-based model to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions associated with manufacturing and predict the peak emission levels. Among these influencing factors, investmentscale expansion and economic growth contribute to increases in carbon emissions, while energystructure optimization and reduced carbon-emission intensity help restrain them. Notably, the economic level is identified as the predominant factor affecting carbon emissions. Among the nine proposed scenarios, scenario 6, characterized by “medium growth” and “high emission reduction”, emerges as the most conducive to achieving high-quality and sustainable growth. Its carbon peak is projected for 2026, reaching 75.15 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, making it the optimal model for Zhejiang’s manufacturing sector. Based on the findings, two policy directions are proposed: optimize the energy-consumption structure and accelerate the development and use of low-carbon technologies. This research offers insights into carbon emissions in Zhejiang’s manufacturing sector, presenting a blueprint for achieving a carbon peak and sustainable economic growth.