ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Research on Carbon Allowance Price Non-Linear
Structure Characteristics and Regime Switching
Mechanism in China's Carbon Market
More details
Hide details
1
School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, Shaanxi, P.R. China
Submission date: 2023-06-01
Final revision date: 2023-07-20
Acceptance date: 2023-09-21
Online publication date: 2023-11-23
Publication date: 2024-01-22
Corresponding author
Jiahe Chen
School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No. 74 Yanta West Road, 710061, Xi’an, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2024;33(2):1375-1389
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Carbon allowance prices (CAP) directly reflect the overall movement of the carbon market,
which is the core of the carbon market operation and an important perspective for studying the
carbon market. Based on the threshold model and regime switching model, through studying the
performance of CAP in China’s carbon market, the paper has the following conclusions. First, CAP
show significant non-linear structure and three operating intervals of high, medium, and low, with most
of the time being active in the medium and low intervals. Second, there is a stabilization mechanism
in the current operation of CAP, which can adequately regulate the trend of CAP fluctuations
and eventually converge back to the normal state. Finally, it is found that moderate increases
are the main form of CAP volatility in China’s carbon market, but other possible states
and the risk of abnormal CAP volatility due to state transformation still exist. Furthermore, for
investors, China’s carbon market may be an ideal place to make long-term investments and hedge risks
in the future. This paper provides theoretical support for investors and regulators in the carbon market
to make scientific decisions based on the carbon market.