ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Potential Geographic Distribution of Durio
oxleyanus (Malvaceae): a Threatened Wild Fruit
Plant Species in Sumatra, Indonesia
More details
Hide details
1
Doctoral Program, Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences, Universitas Andalas.
Kampus Limau Manis, Padang 25163, West Sumatra, Indonesia
2
Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences, Universitas Andalas. Kampus Limau Manis,
Padang 25163, West Sumatra, Indonesia
Submission date: 2023-01-13
Final revision date: 2023-02-21
Acceptance date: 2023-02-25
Online publication date: 2023-04-07
Publication date: 2023-05-18
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2023;32(3):2845-2853
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Durio oxleyanus is a threatened species native to Southeast Asia, particularly Borneo and Sumatra.
Future climate changes are expected to have a significant impact on D. oxleyanus. The aims of this
study, therefore, were (1) assessing the potential distribution of D. oxleyanus in Sumatra, (2) determining
the main variables influencing D. oxleyanus distribution and their suitable range, and (3) simulating
the changing trend of D. oxleyanus suitable habitat under climate change scenarios. We modeled the
current and future distributions of D. oxleyanus using three representative concentration pathways
(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The findings demonstrate that the AUC values of all simulations
were greater than 0.916. The key environmental variables influencing the potential distribution
of D. oxleyanus were mean temperature of the coldest quarter (20-25ºC), elevation (400-800 m),
temperature seasonality (50-60%), and precipitation of coldest quarter (500-750 mm). The highly
suitable habitat covered 1,303.85 ha, with the majority of it concentrated in two provinces, i.e. Aceh and
Sumatera Barat. The total areas of the suitable habitat of D. oxleyanus showed decreasing trends under
the three climate change scenarios, and the geometric center of the highly suitable habitat shifted westsouth
of Sumatra. Our findings can serve as a scientific foundation for the protection, cultivation, and
long-term management of D. oxleyanus.