ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Multivariate Statistical Analysis
and Environmental Modeling of Heavy Metals
Pollution by Industries
Adamu Mustapha1, 2, Ahmad Zaharin Aris1
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1Environmental Forensics Research Centre, Faculty of Environmental Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia,
43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
2Department of Geography, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2012;21(5):1359-1367
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
This study presents the application of some selected multivariate statistical techniques, prediction
method, and confirmatory analysis to identify spatial variation and pollution sources of the Jakara-Getsi river
system in Kano, Nigeria. Two-hundred and forty water samples were collected from eight different sampling
sites along the river system. Fifteen physico-chemical parameters were analyzed: pH, electrical conductivity,
turbidity, hardness, total dissolved solids, dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand,
chemical oxygen demand, mercury, lead, chromium, cadmium, iron, and nickel. Correlation analysis showed
that the mean concentration of heavy metals in the river water samples were significantly positive correlated
values. Principal component analysis and factor analysis (PCA/FA) investigated the origin of the water quality
parameters as due to various anthropogenic activities: five principal components were obtained with
81.84% total variance. Standard, forward, and backward stepwise discriminant analysis (DA) effectively discriminate
thirteen (92.5%), nine (90.1%), and six (88.5%) parameters, respectively. Multiple linear regression
yielded multiple correlation coefficient R value of 0.98 and R-square value of 0.97 with significant value
0.0001 (p <0.05) showing that water qualities in Jakara-Getsi can be predicted due to high concentration of
heavy metals. Structural equation modeling (SEM) confirmed the finding of multivariate and multiple linear
regression analysis. This study provides a new technique of confirming exploratory data analysis using SEM
in water resources management.