ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Habitat
Suitability of Three Endemic Plant Species
in Pakistan
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1
Department of Environmental Science, International Islamic University Islamabad. Pakistan
2
Department of Botany, Women University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Bagh
3
Department of Botany, Government Hashmat Ali Islamia College Rawalpindi, Pakistan
4
Institute of Agro-Industry and Environment, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment,
The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan
5
Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Department of Soil Science
The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan
Submission date: 2023-01-13
Final revision date: 2023-02-25
Acceptance date: 2023-03-04
Online publication date: 2023-04-24
Publication date: 2023-06-23
Corresponding author
Ammad Waheed Qazi
Department of Environmental Science, International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2023;32(4):3281-3290
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ABSTRACT
The use of species distribution modelling under climate change to anticipate alterations in species’
habitats is a concern in ecological conservation. This research aimed to simulate the present suitable
habitat distribution of three species that are rare and endemic to Pakistan and to analyse the possible
climate change consequences on habitat suitability in the future (2050 and 2070). We projected
potentially suitable habitat distributions using two shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSPs
245 and SSPs 585). The potential distribution was modelled with MaxEnt using species presence-only
data, and environmental variables. The modelling approach included seven climate-related variables
in total. The model was validated using AUC, TSS, and Jackknife. For all species, the AUC score was
>0.85. The present distribution of all three species has been significantly impacted by precipitationrelated
factors (bio 14, bio 17, and bio 18). The temperature and topographic diversity also impacted the
distribution. The potentially suitable habitat for Buxus papillosa and Rydingia limbata is projected to
increase (39 % and 44 % respectively) in the 2050s under SSPs 245, and the potentially suitable habitat
for Gentiana kurroo is projected to decrease (24%) in 2070s under SSPs 585. All species may expect
appropriate habitats to expand or shrink, however, there will probably be a significant loss of native
habitats. We recommend designating climate-change-affected places as conservation protection zones
based on these results.