SHORT COMMUNICATION
Modeling River Ecosystem Vulnerability
Assessments Due to Climate Change:
Case Study of Armenia
Alla S. Aleksanyan1, Surik Kh. Khudaverdyan2, Ashok Vaseashta3,4
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1Department of Geo-Botany and Ecological Physiology, Institute of Botany of NAS Armenia,
Acharyan 1, Yerevan, 0063 Armenia
2Design and Production of Radio Devices, Armenian National Polytechnical University,
Teryan 105, Yerevan, 0009 Armenia
3Institute for Advanced Sciences Convergence & International Clean Water Institute, NUARI, Northfield, VT 05663
4Molecular Science Research Center, Claflin University, Orangeburg, SC 29115 USA
Submission date: 2014-08-07
Final revision date: 2014-10-30
Acceptance date: 2014-11-02
Publication date: 2015-04-02
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2015;24(2):871-877
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ABSTRACT
Water resources are an integral part of the global hydrologic cycle and are considered among the natural
systems most vulnerable to climate change. Research indicates that severe problems related to water will
affect the globe around 2030, which will further intensify to attain its peak by 2100 unless a different water
management trajectory is strategically implemented. To conduct an accurate climate change impact assessment
it is necessary to conduct parametric analysis for vulnerability to assess for each system by constructing
a conceptual hydrogeological model that is then transferred to a mathematical model of overall water
resources. We present here a case study outlining plausible impacts of climate change on water resources of
Armenia, particularly on river ecosystems. Based on this initial study, we propose certain recommendations
for the future to reduce, if not reverse in its entirety, the vulnerability trajectory. We further conclude that vulnerability
assessment of water resources resulting from climate change, as proposed here, can be applied for
different countries and will be of considerable interest worldwide.