ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Investigating Environmental Factors for Locating
Mangrove Ex-situ Conservation Zones Using
GIS Spatial Techniques and the Logistic Regression
Algorithm in Mangrove Forests in Iran
Hasti Petrosian1, Afshin Daneh Kar1, Sohrab Ashrafi1, Jahangir Feghhi2
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1Department of the Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
2Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
Submission date: 2016-01-07
Final revision date: 2016-04-10
Acceptance date: 2016-04-12
Publication date: 2016-10-05
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2016;25(5):2097-2106
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ABSTRACT
Along the coastal strip of tropical and subtropical regions, mangrove forests extend as one of the
most productive coastal ecosystems. Iran is considered one of the most western coastal habitats of these
communities in Asia. Unfortunately, in recent years, despite their economic and ecological importance,
these forests have been threatened mainly due to human activities, which necessitate the need for protecting
and developing these ecosystems. Ex-situ conservation, which aims to transfer a species to right place for
preservation and development, is one of the most effective ways of protecting these forests. It is obvious that
the successful transfer of a species in order to protect it as ex-situ conservation requires a comprehensive
environmental assessment. The present paper employs a spatio-statistical methodology to delineate areas
enriched with environmental parameters and weather factors necessary to support a mangrove ex-situ
conservation plan in Hormozgan Province, Iran. With extensive effort in reviewing the related studies in the
literature, we elicted a collection of 14 environmental and weather indicators critical to maintaining mangrove
stands in a sustainable ecological environment. For screening the number of indicators to environmental
variables with highest importance in our research, we used the Delphi method to quantify expert attitudes in
order to develop a suitability index collection. Accordingly, an integrated application of GIS spatial analysis
and a logistic regression algorithm were used to build an explicit spatial predictive model that evaluates the
targeted area in terms of identified factors, thereby quantifying the potential of suitable zones for locating
mangrove ex-situ conservation sites. Predictive performance of the developed model was evaluated based
on Kappa index and omission error rate. According to our results, land proneness to a mangrove plantation
has a high positive correlation with environmental attributes such as temperature fluctuation, land form, and
mean tidal level, and has a negative correlation with slope and wave height. Our results should be considered
advantageous for decision makers and planners in the field of mangrove ecosystems.