ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Influential Factor Analysis and Projection
of Industrial CO2 Emissions in China Based
on Extreme Learning Machine Improved
by Genetic Algorithm
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North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China
Submission date: 2018-12-22
Final revision date: 2019-05-12
Acceptance date: 2019-07-22
Online publication date: 2020-02-06
Publication date: 2020-03-31
Corresponding author
Hongdan Hu
North China Electric Power University(Baoding), North China Electric Power University, No. 689 Hua, 071000, Baoding, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2020;29(3):2259-2271
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ABSTRACT
In China, CO2 emissions from industrial sectors on a larger scale than other end-use sectors. In order
to reduce CO2 emissions, it is necessary to study the influencing factors and projection of industrial CO2
emissions. Based on accounting for CO2 emissions from the industrial sectors, this paper carries out
bivariate correlation analysis and linear regression analysis on 15 preselected influencing factors and
industrial CO2 emissions, removing two factors that have failed the significance test. In order to obtain
some potential commonalities among the influencing factors, the remaining 13 influencing factors are
divided into four categories, and then factor analysis is performed on each category in order to obtain five
latent factors. An extreme learning machine algorithm that uses genetic algorithms to optimize the input
weights and bias thresholds – the genetic algorithm extreme learning machine (GA-ELM) algorithm –
to predict industrial CO2 emissions, the empirical results show that the GA-ELM algorithm using five
factors as inputs has a higher prediction accuracy and performance for industrial CO2 emissions than
the extreme learning machine, back propagation neural network, and back propagation neural network
optimized by the genetic algorithm. It also shows that the five influencing factors have a significant
impact on industrial CO2 emissions. Finally, based on the analysis of five influencing factors, some
policy recommendations are proposed for the CO2 emissions reduction path in the industrial sectors.