ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Ideal Point Interval Recognition Model
for Dynamic Risk Assessment of Water Inrush
in Karst Tunnel and Its Application
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1
State Key Laboratory of Mountain Bridge and Tunnel Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University,
Chongqing 400074, China
2
School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, China, 400074
3
China Merchants Chongqing Communications Technology Research & Design Institute Co., Ltd.,
Chongqing 400067, China
4
School of Civil Engineering, Yangtze Normal University, Chongqing 408100, China
Submission date: 2023-09-01
Final revision date: 2023-09-26
Acceptance date: 2023-10-01
Online publication date: 2024-01-04
Publication date: 2024-02-09
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2024;33(2):1875-1886
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ABSTRACT
Water inrush has become one of the main engineering hazards in tunnel and underground
engineering construction. A new ideal point interval recognition model for risk assessment of water
inrush was proposed to accurately predict and effectively prevent the hazard. Given the complexity
and uncertainty of the geological conditions of tunnel engineering, a continuous interval of a small
range was used to assign the evaluation index instead of a fixed value. The positive and negative ideal
points and the ideal distance measure function were improved. The fusion method of multi-index
ideal distance measure interval and the risk classification standard based on ideal closeness degree
was presented. The integrated weighting method combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
and frequency statistic method was introduced to determine the weight of the evaluation index.
The AHP was improved based on the proposed 1~5 scale and triangular fuzzy theory. Considering
the dynamic risk change of water inrush, a dynamic risk assessment method was established to realize
the process control of the hazard including the preliminary assessment and secondary assessment.
The risk-pregnant environment factors were selected to evaluate the preliminary risk before tunnel
construction. In the construction of the tunnels, the environmental factors were modified and the riskcausing
factors were introduced to evaluate the secondary risk. The proposed method was used to
dynamically evaluate the risk of water inrush in the river-crossing section of the Yuelongmen Tunnel
from Chengdu to Lanzhou Railway. The evaluation results were in good agreement with the actual situation. The method has better grade discrimination and risk identification and has a certain guiding
significance for risk prevention and control of tunnel and underground engineering geological hazards.