Green technological innovation has the dual benefit of promoting economic development and limiting environmental pollution and is critical to sustainable development in developing countries. This study assessed the green innovation effects of ecological civilization pilot policies by using the difference-indifferences approach, mediating effects model, and causal forest algorithm. The results showed that: (1) The ecological civilization pilot policy increased the level of green technology innovation in the pilot area by 27.9 %. (2) Urbanization partially mediated the impact process of ecological civilization pilot policies on green technology innovation, and the green innovation effect transmitted through urbanization was about 28%. (3) When energy structure and financial support were taken as the conditions, the green innovation effect of the ecological civilization pilot policy respectively showed an S-shaped curve and an inverted U-shaped curve. The above results can provide a new scientific basis for promoting green development in developing countries.