ORIGINAL RESEARCH
GIS-based Study on the Susceptibility
of Dubai Creek (UAE) to Eutrophication
Tarig A. Ali, Maruf Mortula, Serter Atabay
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Department of Civil Engineering, American University of Sharjah,
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
Submission date: 2016-03-29
Final revision date: 2016-06-02
Acceptance date: 2016-06-11
Publication date: 2016-11-24
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2016;25(6):2275-2282
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ABSTRACT
Rapid urbanization in the UAE has led to some environmental implications, one of which concerns
Dubai Creek – a major attraction in the city of Dubai. The creek’s water quality monitoring program showed
increased concentrations of phosphorus- and nitrogen-based nutrients starting in 2008 and 2009. The creek
has since been through redundant eutrophication, which has been attributed to the high levels of nutrients
in addition to the creek’s poor flushing and irregular circulation processes. The aim of this study was to (a)
assess the susceptibility of the creek to eutrophication considering its principal factors, and (b) to identify
the pattern of this process (i.e., seasonal, cyclic, etc.). Principal component analysis was used to identify the
principal factors from nitrates, phosphates, total nitrogen, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity,
which were collected as quarterly averages in 2012 and 2013. Logistic regression was utilized to assess the
susceptibility of the creek to eutrophication considering the principal factors obtained by PCA. The analysis
showed that three different factors, which included at least nitrates or phosphates, have contributed to
eutrophication in every quarter of the year in the period of study. Further analysis showed weak correlation
between principal factors of eutrophication in consecutive quarters. However, strong correlations were
observed between these factors when the same quarters over the period of the study were considered,
suggesting a possible seasonal pattern.