The Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has an important strategic position in the development of China. However, its ecological security is facing potential risks, and there is an urgent need to evaluate the ecological status of the region. Based on the improved ecological footprint model and the prediction results of the PLUS model, the temporal and spatial changes of the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle from 2012 to 2027 were analyzed. The results showed the following: (1) The total ecosystem service value of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle fluctuated and increased from 2012 to 2027. (2) From 2012 to 2027, the ecological footprint of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle first increased and then decreased, mainly due to changes in grassland and construction land. The ecological carrying capacity of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle first increased and then decreased. (3) From 2012 to 2027, the ecological deficit areas in the whole region were mainly concentrated in the construction land in Chengdu and Chongqing, and the ecological deficit was consistent with the construction land expansion trend. Compared with the traditional ecological footprint model, the improved model had increased content based on the value of ecosystem services, which improved the accuracy of ecological status assessment for the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.