Introduction: Green finance (GF), as a policy tool, utilizes various financial instruments to support China’s ecological civilization efforts. However, China’s financial and agricultural systems remain underdeveloped, and the impact of GF on pollution control and emission reduction in agriculture is still uncertain. This paper empirically investigates the influence of GF on agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP).
Methods: Using data from 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021, this study measures GF development and ANPSP levels via the entropy method and unit survey inventory method. A mediation effect model is applied to empirically examine the mechanisms of action, with validation through machine learning techniques.
Results: The findings indicate that: (1) GF development effectively reduces ANPSP emissions; (2) GF achieves pollution control and emission reduction through government environmental regulation (ER) and land transfer (LAND); (3) in economically underdeveloped regions, GF may unintentionally exacerbate ANPSP.
Conclusion: Based on these findings, China should optimize its GF system, tailor GF initiatives to local conditions, and emphasize regional coordination and integration. Actively promoting LAND and encouraging large-scale land management will further support the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture.