Zhangji water source is related to the safe water and health of nearly 9 million people in Xuzhou. The groundwater quality standards were evaluated. In this study, the Entropy fuzzy comprehension evaluation method (EFCE) was used to analyze the groundwater quality of Zhangji water source. According to (GB/T 14848-2017), the water quality assessment results can be divided into five levels (from most suitable to least suitable). The results show that there are three areas where the groundwater quality is Class III and the rest are Class I. Moreover, according to the analysis of the health risk assessment results of drinking water sources, the increasing trend of the hazard index of fluoride and nitrite to human health in Zhangji water sources is obvious. For this reason, this paper used the Shuffle Complex Evolution Algorithm (SCE-UA) to establish a water quality evolution model for the Zhangji water source. Simulation results show that nitrate concentrations, mineralization and fluoride have not exceeded the limit in most areas of the Zhangji water source in the past five years. However, concentrations of pollutants such as nitrate are gradually approaching the Class III water limit in the Groundwater Quality Standard (GB/T 14848-2017), indicating a gradual deterioration in water quality at source, albeit a slower trend, which is influenced by human activities.