ORIGINAL RESEARCH
European Union Oil Import Dependency
Risk Analysis
Marko Cirovic, Dragana Makajic-Nikolic, Natasa Petrovic,
Mirko Vujosevic, Marija Kuzmanovic
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University of Belgrade, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia
Submission date: 2014-03-05
Final revision date: 2014-05-09
Acceptance date: 2014-05-09
Publication date: 2015-02-06
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2015;24(1):75-81
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ABSTRACT
In a world with growing energy demand and increasing energy scarcity, the need for new methods of
risk analysis of energy supplies has been emphasized. These methods became even more important for specific
energy resources whose future usage is quite questionable, such as oil. This paper will try to examine
potential use of one such method for measuring energy security of countries and its dependency on external
sources. One method used is failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), widely used in risk analysis and an
inductive modelling approach used to evaluate potential failure modes and their causes. The main goal of
FMEA is to prioritize potential risks and lead to actions that will eliminate or reduce the likelihood or effects
of their occurrence. Risk evaluation and priority risk numbers were assessed based on expert opinion, using
specially created scales developed for the monitored problem. In this paper we try to implement FMEA as a
method for quantifying risk of oil shortage for European Union countries and their ability to respond to their
growing oil demand and dependency. As a result of this study, ranking these countries by the level of risk they
are exposed to will be presented, as well as analysis of the reasons underpinning such rankings.