ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Elman-Based Forecaster Integrated by Adaboost
Algorithm in 15 min and 24 h ahead Power Output
Prediction Using PM 2.5 Values, PV Module
Temperature, Hours of Sunshine,
and Meteorological Data
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1
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China
2
Dezhou Power Supply Company, Dezhou City, Shandong Province, China
3
Spic Ningjin Thermoelectricity Co., Ning Jin County, China
Submission date: 2018-01-04
Final revision date: 2018-03-22
Acceptance date: 2018-03-26
Online publication date: 2018-12-12
Publication date: 2019-02-18
Corresponding author
Wei Li
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 689 Huadian Road, Baoding, 071003 Baoding, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2019;28(3):1999-2008
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ABSTRACT
Nowadays, with the depletion of fossil energy and deterioration of environmental quality, solar
energy is perceived to be a renewable and clean energy. While developing rapidly all over the world,
solar energy is also faced with many challenges resulting from its inherent properties. In order to reduce
the impact on the grid and facilitate scheduling, it is a growing problem to build a feasible model to
forecast PV power with high precision. Therefore, this paper proposes an Elman-based forecaster
integrated by Adaboost algorithm, namely Adaboost + Elman. Before forecasting, input variables
containing PM 2.5 values, temperature of the PV module, sunshine hours, and meteorological data
are made using correlation, clustering, and discriminate analysis to avoid information redundancy and
improve the generalization ability of the model. To verify the developed model’s application to shortterm
PV forecasting in two different time scales, data of Huangsi in 2016 are used for model construction
and verification. An additional 7 models are introduced to make comparison. Experimental results prove
that the proposed model is effective and practicable for two different scales of short-term PV power
prediction.