ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Carbon Emission
Intensity: Empirical Evidence from China
Based on Spatial Metrology
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1
University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China
2
Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China
Submission date: 2023-06-08
Final revision date: 2023-08-20
Acceptance date: 2023-09-08
Online publication date: 2023-11-21
Publication date: 2024-01-22
Corresponding author
Hongjie Zhang
University of Science and Technology Beijing, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2024;33(2):1057-1071
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ABSTRACT
Under the background of rapid global economic transformation, the influence of economic policy
uncertainty (EPU) has penetrated all fields of production and life. It is significant to study how it
affects the regional carbon emission intensity for regional sustainable development. Based on the data
from 30 provinces from 2004 to 2017, this paper takes a complete account of spatial heterogeneity
and the dynamic impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emission intensity using a spatial
econometric model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) For more than ten years, there have been
significant differences and instabilities in economic policy uncertainty and carbon emission intensity
in different regions of China. (2) China’s local carbon emission intensity shows an objective spatial
aggregation effect, which is significant, spatially auto-correlated and clustered. (3) Based on the national
level, economic policy uncertainty will significantly increase the regional carbon emission intensity.
Additionally, economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive spatial spillover effect, which may
increase carbon emission intensity in neighboring provinces. (4) Based on the provincial level, the
impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emission intensity in various regions is significantly
positive, with the most significant impact on the western region. Based on the above conclusions,
the paper proposes policy suggestions to stabilize the regional carbon emission intensity in all directions.