This paper systematically examines carbon emissions from China’s export trade (2013-2022) amid the rising conflict between economic globalization and environmental protection. Using the Tapio decoupling and LMDI models, the spatiotemporal characteristics and key drivers of these emissions are identified, and a gray relational early warning system is introduced. Findings reveal that the primary contributor to carbon emissions is the expansion of export trade, with the industrial sector as the largest source. While occasional energy intensity and structure improvements have reduced emissions, the overall trend remains upward. Policy recommendations include optimizing energy structure, boosting efficiency, advancing industrial upgrades, and promoting green logistics to support China’s “dual carbon” goals and foster sustainable economic-environmental development.