ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Does an Inverted U-shaped Relationship Exist
between ICT and CO2 Emissions in China?
Evidence from Unconditional Quantile Regression
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College of Economics, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, People’s Republic of China 310018
Submission date: 2022-01-26
Final revision date: 2022-03-07
Acceptance date: 2022-03-07
Online publication date: 2022-05-20
Publication date: 2022-07-12
Corresponding author
Gan Liu
Hangzhou Dianzi University, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2022;31(4):3677-3686
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ABSTRACT
Information and communication technology (ICT) has experienced rapid development
in recent decades, which exerts profound impacts on environmental sustainability. The positive
and negative environmental impacts of ICT are widely debated. Some scholars point that some negative
environmental impacts have arisen due to the production, use and disposal of ICT. While others
consider that ICT has exerted favorable impacts on environmental sustainability by building smarter
cities, transportation systems, electrical grids and industrial processes. These two effects are opposite,
resulting in an inverted U-shaped relationship between ICT and CO2 emissions. The existing literature
abound in the relationship between ICT and CO2 emissions in developed countries, but little attention
has been paid to China. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the non-linear relationship
between ICT and CO2 emissions in China. Applying China’s urban panel data covering period
2004-2017 and employing unconditional quantile regression with fixed effect to estimate the benchmark
model, we confirm the inverted U-shaped relationship between ICT and CO2 emissions at all quantiles.
Considering the regional differences, there is an inverted U form between ICT and CO2 emissions at all
quantiles for the eastern cities. Whereas, for non-eastern cities, the inverted U form only exists below
the medium-high quantiles and does not exist at high quantiles. The findings not only contribute to the
existing literatures, but also provide some policy implications to China and other developing countries.