ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Distributionally Robust Two-Stage
Minimum Asymmetric Adjustment Cost
Consensus Model with Risk Aversion
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1
Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, China
2
School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
Submission date: 2023-11-05
Final revision date: 2023-12-18
Acceptance date: 2024-01-20
Online publication date: 2024-05-09
Publication date: 2024-06-27
Corresponding author
Kai Zhu
Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2024;33(5):5065-5085
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ABSTRACT
Global warming, mainly caused by human activities, demands urgent reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions. Establishing a carbon market central to this effort involves the allocation of carbon emission
quotas. The uncertainty of consensus cost in the carbon market will bring the risk of loss to the whole
consensus process. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem of group consensus decision with
risk averse decision maker. First, three new distributionally robust two-stage minimum asymmetric
adjustment cost consensus models based on conditional value at risk (CVaR) are proposed. Considering
that it is difficult to obtain historical decision-making data with risk in the carbon market, a novel box
ambiguous set and a polyhedron ambiguous set are constructed, respectively. The risk expectation
cost of group consensus decision-making problem under the worst-case condition is measured. Then,
a computable linear equivalent form of the proposed model is derived in order to facilitate calculation.
Finally, numerical cases based on carbon emission quotas are carried out. The numerical results show
that the consensus cost of this method is better than the results under the stochastic programming
method, and it brings new solutions to the group decision-making progress in the allocation of carbon
emission quotas.