ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Development and Application of Exceedance Model
for Surface Water Quality Parameters
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1
Department of Civil Engineering, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus,
Abbottabad 22060, KPK, Pakistan
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary,
2500 University Dr NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4 Canada
3
Department of Geomatics Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary;
2500 University NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4 Canada
4
Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus,
Abbottabad 22060, KPK, Pakistan
Submission date: 2020-02-25
Final revision date: 2020-06-11
Acceptance date: 2020-06-17
Online publication date: 2020-11-27
Publication date: 2021-02-05
Corresponding author
Tahir Ali Akbar
Civil Engineering, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus, University Road, 22060, Abbottabad, Pakistan
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2021;30(2):1497-1511
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ABSTRACT
Surface water quality is continuously changing due to anthropogenic activities and natural causes.
The drinking water treatment technology can be expensive and ineffective if implemented without
identifying the patterns of parameter exceedances. The objectives of this paper were to: (i) develop
a mean exceedance model; (ii) apply the model for identification of the exceeded parameters; (iii) obtain
the exceedance patterns of parameters; and (iv) obtain decision making on the treatment of parameters.
The mean exceedance model was developed by utilizing cluster database of 12 major Canadian rivers.
The clusters were developed on the basis of normalization model, principal component analysis, total
exceedance model and Canadian Water Quality Index. On application of mean exceedance model, the
parameters were identified, which exceeded the water quality guidelines. The output of mean exceedance
model was utilized for making decision on treatment of parameters. The normalized water quality data
of 17 parameters was used to develop a mean exceedance model to obtain exceedance level for water
quality parameters. The mean exceedance for the parameters increased as the cluster number increased
from low to high for all the rivers. Overall, the mean exceedance was higher for fecal coliforms, turbidity,
total phosphorus, total nitrogen, true colour, dissolved oxygen, iron and manganese. The exceedance
in fecal coliforms, turbidity, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, true colour, dissolved oxygen could
be related to anthropogenic activities of landuse/landcover (LULC). The exceedance in iron and
manganese could be associated to natural mineralization. The mean exceedance model was found useful
for obtaining the specific parameters with their exceedance levels. The parameter exceedance patterns could be utilized for the development of economical, efficient and targeted treatment technology for the
source waters.