ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Comparison of Statistical and Deep Learning
Methods for Forecasting PM2.5 Concentration
in Northern Thailand
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Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200 Thailand
Submission date: 2022-07-06
Final revision date: 2022-10-16
Acceptance date: 2022-12-01
Online publication date: 2023-02-09
Publication date: 2023-02-23
Corresponding author
Kamonrat Suphawan
Department of Statistics, Chiang Mai University, Department of Statistics, Faulty of Science, Chian, 50200, Chiang mai, Thailand
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2023;32(2):1419-1431
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ABSTRACT
This study applies statistical methods and deep learning techniques to forecast the daily average
PM2.5 concentration in northern Thailand, where the concentration is usually high and exceeds
the safe level. The data used in the analysis are collected from January 2018 to December 2020 from
16 air monitoring stations. The statistical methods used are Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (ETS),
autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and dynamic linear model (DLM). The deep
learning techniques considered in this study are the recurrent neural network (RNN) and long-short
term memory (LSTM). To compare the predictive performance of both methods, we use the root mean
square error (RMSE). The result indicates that statistical methods, especially ARIMA, perform better
than the deep learning techniques in most stations. Moreover, LSTM tends to provide higher accuracy
than the RNN, especially with more number of nodes.