ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Comparing Machine-Learning Models
for Drought Forecasting in Vietnam’s
Cai River Basin
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1
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
2
School of Civil Engineering, Guizhou Institute of Technology, Guiyang, China
3
Thuyloi University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Submission date: 2017-08-11
Final revision date: 2017-10-25
Acceptance date: 2017-11-28
Online publication date: 2018-05-10
Publication date: 2018-07-09
Corresponding author
Zhen Nan Liu
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China, No. 1 xikang road, nanjing, jiangsu province, china, 210098 nanjing, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2018;27(6):2633-2646
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ABSTRACT
Drought occurs throughout the world, affecting people more than any other major natural hazards
– especially in the agriculture industry. An effective and timely monitoring system is required to mitigate
the impacts of drought. Meanwhile, extreme learning machine (ELM), online sequential extreme learning
machine (OS-ELM), and self-adaptive evolutionary extreme learning machine (SADE-ELM) are rarely
applied as the alternative drought-forecasting tools in the meantime. The present study aims to evaluate the
ability of these models to predict drought and the quantitative value of drought indices, the standardized
precipitation index (SPI), and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). For this
purpose, the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) events at NinoW and Nino4 zones were selected
for input variables to forecast drought. The SPI/SPEI values may contain a one/three/six-month dry
and a one/three/six-month wet period in short-term periods, and this causes instability. For this reason,
4 models for SPI/SPEI (12 months) were trained and tested by these methods, respectively. According to
two statistical indices (RMSE and CORR) and stability of these methods, the SADE-ELM models perform
the best, and the performance of the OS-ELM models are better than the ELM models.