ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Change Point Detection and Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Series over the Vellar River Basin
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Centre for Water Resources, College of Engineering, Anna University,
Guindy, Chennai-600025, India
Submission date: 2017-05-31
Final revision date: 2017-09-04
Acceptance date: 2017-09-18
Online publication date: 2018-02-20
Publication date: 2018-03-30
Corresponding author
Supriya Palaniswami
Anna University, Centre For Water Resources, College Of Engineering Guindy, 600025 Chennai, India
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2018;27(4):1673-1681
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ABSTRACT
Rainfall and temperature have been extensively considered as an initial point toward the apprehension
of climate change progressions, establishing one of the important constituents of the hydrological cycle.
The purpose of the present study is to examine the variability of rainfall and temperature for better
understanding of the hydrological environment of the river basin located in northern Tamil Nadu.
Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were employed for monthly, seasonal, and annual temperatures, and
also for annual maximum daily rainfall, seasonal, and annual rainfall statistics. A change point detection test
was applied for annual maximum and minimum, mean temperature, and annual precipitation series. The
results revealed that all the monthly, seasonal, and annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures
have a significant greater rising trend. The magnitude of increasing trends in NEM (northeast monsoon)
and SWM (southwest monsoon) are greater than that of summer and winter seasons for almost all the rain
gauge stations. The maximum temperature and minimum temperature change points are identified in the
years 1985 and 2001 and 1987 and 2013, respectively. From the mean annual temperature, it is seen that
the change point is present in 1983-88 and 2000-04 at 100% confidence interval.