ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Applying the Dynamic Critical Precipitation
Method for Flash Flood Early Warning
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1
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, P. R. China
2
School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology,
Wuhan, P. R. China
3
State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Reduction for Power Grid Transmission
and Distribution Equipment, Changsha, China
4
State Grid Hunan Electric Company Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center, Changsha, China
Submission date: 2017-12-10
Final revision date: 2018-01-10
Acceptance date: 2018-01-23
Online publication date: 2018-12-12
Publication date: 2019-02-18
Corresponding author
Ji Liang
Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuchang Road, 024720 Wuhan, China
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2019;28(3):1727-1733
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ABSTRACT
The flash flood early warning method based on dynamic critical precipitation is proposed,
which takes into account the percentage saturation of soil moisture content in double-excess model.
A series of historical precipitation data of various gauge stations in the upper catchment of the study
area at the early warning cross-section are set as the input parameters, thereby the runoff generation
and concentration in the catchment are obtained in the double-excess model, and the percent saturation
of soil moisture content is calculated. Based on the warning discharge in combination with
the percentage saturation of soil moisture content, the discriminant relations of the critical precipitation
for the time intervals, including 0.5 h, 1 h, 1.5 h, 2 h, 2.5 h, and 3 h, are computed respectively using
the inversion method. Using the precipitation data from ground rain gauge stations for year x and flood
hydrograph data of x typical flood events for the Dayuhe River catchment, the SCE-UA algorithm
is adopted to calibrate the parameters of the double-excess model, and the discriminant functions
of dynamic critical precipitation for flash flood early warning with 6 time scales are validated using
x representative historical flood hydrographs. The qualification ratio for flash flood early warning
exceeds x, which demonstrates the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method.