ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Application of Artificial Neural
Network and Climate Indices to Drought
Forecasting in South-Central Vietnam
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1
Faculty of Water Resource Engineering, Thuyloi University, Hanoi, Vietnam
2
Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville,
VA USA
Submission date: 2019-01-16
Final revision date: 2019-02-27
Acceptance date: 2019-03-26
Online publication date: 2019-09-18
Publication date: 2020-01-16
Corresponding author
Luong Bang Nguyen
Faculty of Water Resource Engineering, Thuyloi University, Viet Nam
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2020;29(2):1293-1303
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ABSTRACT
Widespread negative consequences of droughts related to climate indices in Vietnam have motivated
many studies integrating those indices to predict the onset of drought in the region. This study aims
to examine the capacity of eight climate Pacific Ocean indices as input variables for forecasting the
drought index at 30 stations of south-central Vietnam during the period 1977 to 2014. The standardized
precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was selected as a predicted target drought index at four
multiple time scales (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Input variable selection filters (partial correlation input
selection and partial mutual information selection) were used to select the suitable climate indices as
input parameters, and an artificial neural network was applied for the drought model. The results showed
that partial correlation input selection selected a better optimal input set for the drought model. The
west tropical Pacific index (NINOW), east central tropical Pacific index (NINO34), and south oscillation
index (SOI) were climate indices that could improve the drought forecasting performances at the given
study.