About the Journal
In Memory of Professor Jerzy Radecki
Editorial Office
Editorial Board
Scope
Impact Factor
Indexed in...
Journal Impact Factor contributing items
Contact
Subscription
Current issue
Online first
Notes to Authors
Frequently Asked Questions
Editorial policies
PJOES Publication Policy Overview
PJOES Peer Review Policy
PJOES Research Ethics and Malpractice Policy
PJOES Plagiarism Policy
PJOES Conflict of Interest Policy
PJOES Open Access Policy
PJOES Instructions for Reviewers
Generative AI and AI-Assisted Technologies Policy
Archive
REVIEW PAPER
A Systematic Review on the Evolution
of Carbon Emission Forecasting
1
School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China
Submission date: 2024-06-28
Final revision date: 2024-08-07
Acceptance date: 2024-08-23
Online publication date: 2024-10-14
Publication date: 2025-11-04
Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 2025;34(6):6509-6527
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Carbon emissions are a primary driver of global warming, prompting increasing research efforts
to forecast carbon emission trends and mitigate their environmental impact. However, a systematic
understanding of the existing literature on carbon emission forecasting is lacking. This study aims to
provide a comprehensive review of this research field to inform decision-making. Specifically, the study
summarizes the literature on carbon emission forecasts from three perspectives. First, it analyzes the
general characteristics of the literature. Second, it visualizes and examines research topics and trends
over different periods. Third, it explores the foundational knowledge, research content, and contributions
of the literature, integrating them into a coherent knowledge framework. The visualization results
indicate that the topics of carbon emission forecast studies have shown continuity over the past three
decades. Meanwhile, research emphases differ between developed and developing regions. Based on
these findings, policy recommendations are proposed, including the enhancement of energy efficiency
standards, macro-regulation constraints, fiscal and tax incentives, and the optimization of the energyemission
structure.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
REFERENCES (30)
1.
CARLETON T., GREENSTONE M. A guide to updating the US Government's social cost of carbon. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 16 (2), 196, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1086/720988.
2.
PEDREIRA V.N., BRITO M.L., SANTOS L.C.L., SIMONELLI G. Modeling of Brazilian carbon dioxide emissions: a review. Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology, 65, e22210594, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-4....
3.
WANG J., RODRIGUES J.F.D., HU M., BEHRENS P., TUKKER A. The evolution of Chinese industrial CO₂ emissions 2000–2050: a review and meta-analysis of historical drivers, projections and policy goals. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 116, 109433, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser....
4.
CAI M., SHI Y., REN C., YOSHIDA T., YAMAGATA Y., DING C., ZHOU N. The need for urban form data in spatial modeling of urban carbon emissions in China: A critical review. Journal of Cleaner Production, 319, 128792, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcle....
5.
HU Y., MAN Y. Energy consumption and carbon emissions forecasting for industrial processes: Status, challenges and perspectives. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 182, 113405, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser....
6.
JIN Y., SHARIFI A., LI Z., CHEN S., ZENG S., ZHAO S. Carbon emission prediction models: A review. Science of the Total Environment, 172319, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scit... PMid:38599410.
7.
JIANG K., ASHWORTH P. The development of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) research in China: A bibliometric perspective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 138, 110521, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser....
8.
ZHENG J., LIU R., ZHONG X., ZHANG R. Web of science-based virtual brand communities: a bibliometric review between 2000 and 2020. Internet Research, 33 (2), 606, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1108/INTR-1....
9.
DONG F., HUA Y., YU B. Peak carbon emissions in China: Status, key factors and countermeasures—A literature review. Sustainability, 10 (8), 2895, 2018. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1008....
10.
WANG X., CHANG Y., XU Z., WANG Z., KADIRKAMANATHAN V. 50 Years of international journal of systems science: a review of the past and trends for the future. International Journal of Systems Science, 52 (8), 1515, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/002077....
11.
HU Y., YU Y., MARDANI A. Selection of carbon emissions control industries in China: An approach based on complex networks control perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 172, 121030, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tech....
12.
GUO L.N., SHE C., KONG D.B., YAN S.L., XU Y.P., KHAYATNEZHAD M., GHOLINIA F. Prediction of the effects of climate change on hydroelectric generation, electricity demand, and emissions of greenhouse gases under climatic scenarios and optimized ANN model. Energy Reports, 7, 5431, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr....
13.
WANG Q., LI S., PISARENKO Z. Modeling carbon emission trajectory of China, US and India. Journal of Cleaner Production, 258, 120723, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcle....
14.
MIRJAT N.H., UQAILI M.A., HARIJAN K., WALASAI G.D., MONDAL M.A.H., SAHIN H. Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis. Energy, 165, 512, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ener....
15.
NAWAZ A., HAFEEZ G., KHAN I., JAN K.U., LI H., KHAN S.A., WADUD Z. An intelligent integrated approach for efficient demand side management with forecaster and advanced metering infrastructure frameworks in smart grid. IEEE Access, 8, 132551, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS....
16.
DEMIREZEN G., FUNG A.S. Feasibility of cloud-based smart dual fuel switching system (SDFSS) of hybrid residential space heating systems for simultaneous reduction of energy cost and greenhouse gas emission. Energy and Buildings, 250, 111237, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbu....
17.
NEMATCHOUA M.K., SADEGHI M., REITER S. Strategies and scenarios to reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emission in the urban, rural and sustainable neighborhoods. Sustainable Cities and Society, 72, 103053, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.....
18.
YANG L., WANG Y., LIAN Y., HAN S. Factors and scenario analysis of transport carbon dioxide emissions in rapidly-developing cities. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 80, 102252, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.....
19.
PÉREZ-CALDERÓN E., MILANÉS-MONTERO P., GUTÍERREZ-PÉREZ C. Climate change, where do we come from and where are we going? European aviation sector behaviour. Transport Policy, 114, 40, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tran....
20.
ALI A., USMAN M., USMAN O., SARKODIE S.A. Modeling the effects of agricultural innovation and biocapacity on carbon dioxide emissions in an agrarian-based economy: evidence from the dynamic ARDL simulations. Frontiers in Energy Research, 8, 592061, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.....
21.
CUI G., WANG J. Improving the DNDC biogeochemistry model to simulate soil temperature and emissions of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide in cold regions. Science of the Total Environment, 687, 61, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scit... PMid:31202014.
22.
KIRIKKALELI D., KALMAZ D.B. Testing the moderating role of urbanization on the environmental Kuznets curve: empirical evidence from an emerging market. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27 (30), 38169, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356... PMid:32617821.
23.
SU Q., DAI H., LIN Y., CHEN H., KARTHIKEYAN R. Modeling the carbon-energy-water nexus in a rapidly urbanizing catchment: A general equilibrium assessment. Journal of Environmental Management, 225, 93, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenv... PMid:30075307.
24.
BENNEDSEN M., HILLEBRAND E., KOOPMAN S.J. Modeling, forecasting, and nowcasting US CO₂ emissions using many macroeconomic predictors. Energy Economics, 96, 105118, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enec....
25.
DONG J., LI C., WANG Q. Decomposition of carbon emission and its decoupling analysis and prediction with economic development: A case study of industrial sectors in Henan Province. Journal of Cleaner Production, 321, 129019, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcle....
26.
CHEN X., SHUAI C., WU Y., ZHANG Y. Analysis on the carbon emission peaks of China's industrial, building, transport, and agricultural sectors. Science of the Total Environment, 709, 135768, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scit... PMid:31884279.
27.
BURGESS M.G., RITCHIE J., SHAPLAND J., PIELKE R. IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO₂ emissions and economic growth. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (1), 014016, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9....
28.
WEN L., YUAN X. Forecasting CO₂ emissions in China's commercial department through BP neural network based on random forest and PSO. Science of The Total Environment, 718, 137194, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scit... PMid:32088474.
29.
WU F., HUANG N., ZHANG F., NIU L., ZHANG Y. Analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of China's key industries under the IPCC 2°C and 1.5°C limits. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 159, 120198, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tech....
30.
LIN X., REN J., XU J., ZHENG T., CHENG W., QIAO J., HUANG J., LI G. Prediction of life cycle carbon emissions of sponge city projects: A case study in Shanghai, China. Sustainability, 10 (11), 3978, 2018. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1011....
Share
RELATED ARTICLE
| eISSN: | 2083-5906 |
| ISSN: | 1230-1485 |
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
