ORIGINAL RESEARCH
A Novel Hybrid Forecasting Model for PM2.5
Concentration Based on Optimized VMD
Decomposition, Multi-Objective Feature
Selection, and Error Correction
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1
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University,
689 Huadian Road, Baoding 071000, China
2
National Engineering Research Center for E-Learning, Central China Normal University, Luoyu Road,
Wuhan , 430079 , Hubei, China
Submission date: 2024-04-24
Final revision date: 2024-05-06
Acceptance date: 2024-05-17
Online publication date: 2024-09-09
Corresponding author
Chenhao Cai
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, China
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ABSTRACT
Accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentration is crucial for public health and environmental protection.
This paper develops a novel forecasting model that combines optimized signal decomposition with
multi-objective feature selection techniques and error correction to enhance the accuracy of PM2.5
concentration predictions. Initially, the RIME algorithm is employed to precisely set the parameters
of Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), which decomposes the raw PM2.5 data into high, medium,
and low-frequency components based on sample entropy values. Subsequently, a multi-objective feature
selection approach is utilized to identify key feature subsets that significantly influence each frequency
domain component. Finally, an optimized Informer model is deployed for comprehensive forecasting,
complemented by an error correction mechanism to obtain the final PM2.5 concentration predictions.
Experimental results indicate that the optimized decomposition effectively extracts key information
from the data, reducing prediction complexity. The multi-objective feature selection approach
provides superior identification of feature subsets compared to traditional single-objective methods.
The enhanced Informer model, coupled with error correction, significantly improves the model’s
accuracy and robustness.